Monday, April 6, 2009

Most Sheffinently

It’s been a while since I did a post about the Mets, but this Gary Sheffield singing has proven to be quite divisive and I wanted to weigh because while I believe this is a pretty sharp move, I get the sense most people think this a bad idea.

Here’s hoping I can get Mets fans to step back off the proverbial ledge with this list of reasons explaining why this is a good idea.

1) Sheffield is much, much better than Marlon Anderson: Here’s the thing about Anderson, he seems like a great guy. In fact, I’m almost sure he is. The problem is that he is no longer a good baseball player. I'm not sure he ever was. The 35-year-old has a .265/.314/.391 career line, and he hit .210/.255/.275 last year in 151 at-bats. And yes, the Mets were entering the season with the plan being him as their top pinch-hitter. Sheffield hit .225/.326/.400 last year, and just .237 on balls in play. That's incredibly low. And coupled with the fact that he is coming to a weaker league, there is reason to believe he will end up looking a lot better than his 2008 line suggests. If you replace Anderson with Sheffield on the bench, that's an improvement. I recognize that Sheff's defense is brutal, but it's not like Anderson has any defensive value. Last year he played 25 games in left, six at first and one at second. He's a utilityman without any utility. At least Sheff is a threat to drive the ball. Marlon is a threat to drive me absolutely insane if I have to continually watch him ground meekly to first like he did against the Reds in the opener.

2) The Mets lean left, and not in a New York Times sort of way: The Mets currently employ lefthanded hitters at first base (Carlos Delgado), left field (Dan Murphy) and right field (Ryan Church). All of these guys are either mediocre (Delgado), unproven (Murphy) or bad (Church) against lefthanded pitching. Furthermore, they have a number of bench bats (Anderson, Jeremy Reed and Alex Cora) who also hit lefty. Bringing in Sheffield gives them a much more balanced bench, and allows them to use him in tandem with Fernando Tatis to mix and match in the outfield corners and at first. In the National League, this gives them a lot of flexibility.

3) Murphy might not be all that: Mets fans are all fired up about Murphy, but I think we should still be a little skeptical. He clearly has a very patient approach at the plate, but it's unclear if there is more to him than that. There is a good chance he hits roughly .280/.360/.400 for his career, and that's not bad. However, you'd typically like more from your leftfielder than that. I was talking to my friend Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus, and he thinks Murphy is going to be the next Frank Catalanatto. I think that's fair. Now if Murphy can replicate Catalanatto's 2001 season a few times (.330/.391/.490), I know I'd be thrilled. Somehow, I think Mets fans are expecting a lot more than that and could be set up for a big disappointment. If Murphy fails, Sheffield gives them a lottery ticket, and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a dead cat bounce in him. And even if he slightly improves on his 2008 performance, there is a decent chance he puts up a better line than Murphy, Church and Tatis. Because of his defense, you don't want Sheff to play him everyday. But if he turns out to be the best hitter of that group of corner guys (which shouldn't surprise anyone), you need to find a way to get him some ABs.

4) He's basically free: Sheffield is getting paid $400,000. That is nothing by MLB standards. If it turns out he is done, or is being such a pain in the ass that he is no longer worth keeping around, you let him go. The only prospect who he could be blocking is Nick Evans, but I think it's smart for the Mets to let Evans play in Triple-A for a while to see if he can improve against righthanded pitching. He's probably just going to be a platoon player, but they might as well see if he can be anything more before making him strictly a platoon player at the age of 23. It's unlikely, but might as well give him a chance to enhance his value while seeing if Sheff can have one more season in which he slugs above .450. If he does, he's the Mets' best bat off of the bench.

Disclaimer: My belief that this is a good move is predicated on the Mets waiving Anderson when they activate Livan Hernandez to be their fifth starter. If, for some ungodly reason, they keep Anderson and demote Jeremy Reed, this becomes a questionable (and possibly bad) move.

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