Hall Of Dumb

If you're someone like me who devours any number of nerdy baseball blogs and websites, you know that Monday is a relatively big day in baseball history. If you don't know, well then let me fill you in.

On Monday the Hall of Fame will announce its 2009 class, which will definitely include Rickey Henderson, likely include Jim Rice, and possibly include Bert Blyleven. Every blogger from Perez Hilton to Markos Moulitas has given their fictional ballot for the Hall of Fame, so I won't go into too much detail about my choices (Henderson, Blyleven, Raines, Tramell, reasons below) here. Instead, I want to address the ongoing case for Jim Rice, and one element I find particularly absurd about it.

Let me just get it out the way that Jim Rice is a horrendous choice for the Hall of Fame. Many insightful and clever writers have ripped his case to shreds elsewhere, but the bottom line is his candidacy is completely driven by Boston writers. What's odd is that when a candidate sees such a boost of support in the later years of his eligibility for the Hall, it's usually because advanced metrics come out to show that the player is more qualified than originally thought. However, that isn't the case with Rice. In fact, not only do advanced metrics say Rice is underqualified, but basic metrics do too! 382 home runs, and his case for the Hall of Fame is entirely predicated on power!

Anyway, the objective case is marginal, and Rice's supporters seem to know this. And that's why his case in recent years has been based entirely around this subjective statement: "He was the most feared hitter of his time." If you're referring to his three-year peak from 1977-79, than this is probably true. But three years does not make a Hall of Fame career.

"Most feared" is a phrase that gets thrown around a lot in baseball. It's not only highly subjective, but also vaguely racist. And the reason I say this is because I only see it attached to surly black players. Seriously, the only guys I can think of who ever got the "most feared" title were Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield, Jim Rice and Albert Belle. Manny Ramirez has probably been called the "most feared" as well, but it's not like he's white. Dale Murphy would never get the title of "most feared," but he actually has a better Hall of Fame case than Rice, seeing that he actually played an important defensive position, and played it well. But he was a wimpy-looking white dude, and despite his magical light saber bat seen in the photo to the right, he doesn't get this arbitrary subjective statement thrown out there boost to his Hall of Fame chances. On the flip side, it's probably the only time where being seen as an "angry black man" has helped someone get included in an elite institution. So maybe this is progress!

Speaking of angry black men, on behalf of my good friend Daniel Sas, the biggest Albert Belle fan on the planet, let's revisit him for a second. I know it was a completely different run-scoring environment, but Belle hit 381 homers in 6,673 plate appearances. Rice hit one more home run, in 9,058 plate appearances. For those who don't have a calculator, that's 2,385 more PAs. And lest you think Belle was completely a product of his era, keep in mind that his career adjusted OPS is 143, and Rice's is 128. The bottom line is that if Rice is a Hall of Famer, than Belle most certainly is too, but Belle fell off the ballot last year in just his second year of eligibility because he got less than five percent of the vote. Considering Rice and Belle were both jerks to the press, it's amazing Belle didn't gotten more support. Are baseball writers really this stupid? You know what, don't answer that question. But seriously, how can you treat two players, with essentially the same case, so differently? I'm not even saying I think Belle is a Hall of Famer because I'm not sure. But if you think Rice is deserving, than you basicallly have to think Belle is as well. Too bad for Belle won't be on the ballot long enough for the "most feared" juices to seep in.

The most humorous part of the entire thing is that we actually have proof that Rice wasn't even that feared. How do we know? Intentional walks. Rice finished in the top 10 in intentional passes just three times in his career. And he was given a free pass just 77 times in his career. Now I realize that could be a product of who was hitting behind him, but if he were really so feared, wouldn't he have gotten more intentional walks than Von Hayes (82), Ed Kranepool (89), Garret Anderson (101) or Wally Joyner (108)? When B.J. freakin' Surhoff (81) has more intentional walks than you, I'm sorry, that just absolutely kills your "most feared" case in my mind. For the record, Belle had 91 intentional walks. But remember that was in more than 2,300 fewer plate appearances.

So yeah, it's pretty clear Jim Rice is a fraud, at least when it comes to the Hall of Fame. But it looks like there is nothing informed baseball nerds can do to stop it. Sigh.

And for those who care about who I think should go in . . .

Rickey Henderson--D'uh.

Tim Raines--The case against him is essentially that he's not Rickey Henderson. That's like saying Willie McCovey should not have gotten in because he's not as good as Lou Gehrig. If Raines spent his career in Boston, as opposed to Rice, he'd definitely be getting in on Monday. I know he doesn't seem obvious at first glance, but he reached base safely more times than Tony Gwynn. There is even a website devoted to his candidacy. So if you don't believe me, believe these guys.

Bert Blyleven--Another not-so obvious candidate, but the reason he hasn't gotten more support is because he doesn't have 300 wins. Wins are obviously not the best metric by which to rate pitchers, and he is fifth all-time in strikeouts, and ninth in shutouts. Those are two pretty basic (and strong) indicators of dominance. So yeah, he should probably be in.

Alan Trammell--Similar to what I said about Rice v. Belle above, if you believe Ozzie Smith is a Hall of Famer, and Smith got in on the first ballot with 91.7% of the vote, than Trammell is too. Based on runs created, Trammell had 100 more than Smith in two fewer seasons. As good as Smith was with the glove, it's hard to believe he was more than 100 runs better than Trammell with the leather because Trammell was also very well-regarded on defense. Unfortunately, since we don't have access to advanced defensive metrics for these older guys, we have to go based on reputation. I tend to think we overrate basic offensive skills and tend to underrate the ability to play an up-the-middle position, and play it well. When you think really hard about it, isn't a guy like Trammell much harder to find than a guy like Rice? One is an above-average hitter who plays a premium position adeptly, and the other is a slowpoke slugger who isn't even that great of a power hitter and led the league in double plays grounded into four times.

Maybe this all just a long of way of poking even more holes through the swiss chese case of Jim Rice, and maybe Trammell isn't deserving either. But if Rice is, then a whole lot people from his era are too. Sadly, it's Rice who will be going in. I guess we can consider it a victory for race relations.