Sweet, Another Closer I Can Yell At!

As you can imagine, the e-mails have been pouring in from readers anxious to hear my take on the Mets signing of closer Francisco Rodriguez. I didn't want to type up my thoughts while it was still unconfirmed because I knew it was going to be a rant, and it would be a shame if a 1,000-word opus went to waste. But now that the deal is official, I can chime in. Buckle up.

Anyone who has ever had a discussion with me about closers knows how overrated I think they are. Even before I was devouring Bill James and Baseball Prospectus, I sensed that these guys were frauds. I've never been able to grasp why people seemed to think closers possessed some sort of special ability to get the final three outs, when every year we watched a new batch of retreads and failed starters rack up 30 saves. Closers are made, not born, and you can't convince me otherwise. I'd rather have my best reliever used in a variety of high-leverage than wasting them on protecting two and three-run leads in the ninth. You don't need to pay someone $10 mill to protect a two-run lead, any stiff can do that.

That being said, I recognize that there is something reassuring about having a reliable guy in the ninth inning. The later the game goes, the more emotionally invested you become, and blowing a lead in the sixth inning is not nearly as heart-wrenching as doing it in the ninth. Fortunately, the Mets are in a position in which they have the luxury of spending lots of money on a "proven closer" without it preventing it from making other moves. And when it comes down to it, that is really what defines a bad move—it handcuffs you.

And as much as I despise the thought of spending big bucks on a closer and have hated Billy Wagner from day one as a result of it, I don't think the Mets deal for K-Rod is terrible. Even though I don't believe closing games involves some sort of special intangible ability, a lot of front office folks do. And if you buy into that voodoo BS, K-Rod is good choice.

Not only is he young (27), but among full-time closers, only Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan have a higher save percentage over the past three seasons than Rodriguez' 89.8% conversion rate. I've come around to the belief that since pretty much all closers are asked to do is protect leads, save percentage is not a bad way to evaluate them. While it might give me an ulcer, I ultimately don't care if my closer allows two runs every time he is given a three-run lead as long we end up winning. And even though Billy Wagner has shinier peripherals, K-Rod has done a better job of protecting leads. That said, save percentage is not a good predictor of performance, and K-Rod's declining K-rate the last couple of seasons gives me pause. But here's the thing: In this market, $37 million over three seasons isn't that much for a closer with K-Rod's resume. And as much as it pains me to admit this, it's actually a bargain. Last season, Francisco Cordero got $46 million from Cincinnati for four years, and they have a limited payroll. So yeah, I think the Mets did OK here, and we can all thank the recession. See, it's not all bad.

The one thing that bothers me about this deal is how predictable it was. When Wagner was ruled out for 2009, I remember saying to my roommate, "Alright, K-Rod's coming here." And I know I wasn't alone. Every Mets fan with half a brain could see this coming from a mile away because the front office seems completely unwilling to think outside of the box in any way, shape or form. Unlike other free agent relievers (Wood and Hoffman, for example), K-Rod was offered arbitration by the Angels. That means the Mets will forfeit a draft pick, in this case a first-round pick, to bring in Rodriguez. For $37 million, roughly $12.3 mill per year, I'm pretty sure the Mets could have brought in at least two good relievers who would not have cost them a draft pick while still having enough money left over to spend some extra dough on the draft, something they've been unwilling to do in the past. By doing that, they not only would have saved themselves a draft pick, but they also would have shored up their bullpen and farm system depth, which are the organization's two biggest weaknesses. But no, creative thinking like that doesn't put you on the fucking back page, so instead the Mets just throw major bucks at big-name free agents and hope that the Mike Lupicas of the world will bite and congratulate them for filling their holes and finding a "winning player," even though those same columnists will be yelling at them in July when Scott Schoenweis is forced to face Albert Pujols with the bases loaded and he gives up a Grand Slam that lands in a North Fork winery.

The not-so-little secret is that bullpen depth is still a huge problem. It was before Wagner went down, it was just exacerbated after his injury. And maybe Minaya et al. discussed some alternatives to signing K-Rod and decided that getting him was the best thing they could do. I just won't really believe it until the Mets show some creativity in building their roster, which is something they've lacked since God knows when.

But the Mets have an incredible four-man core in Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Santana. If there was ever a time for the Mets to spend insanely, it's now. So yeah, go for it. Spend big, and don't waste four superstars in their prime. Don't stop now, though. Go sign 20 more relievers and make sure we aren't left with a bunch of platoon specialists who can't pitch a scoreless inning. Relievers are unpredictable, so if you sign 20, five will pan out. And yes, that's scientific.

But please, for the love of all that is holy, don't sign Raul Ibanez.

Besos,
Matt