The Next Big Thing

If you've been reading this blog, you know I love to throw out theories. And I have another theory that I want to share with you. Those of you who hang out with me regularly have probably heard this theory before, but there is nothing I can do about that. Here it is again.

This is a theory that first came to me when I was recently re-watching "Forgetting Sarah Marshall," and I became convinced of its merits upon seeing "I Love You, Man." The theory is as follows: Jason Segel is the next Tom Hanks.

I don't know why exactly this came to me, but ever since I thought of it I have become convinced that within the next five years Segel is going to be one of the biggest movie stars on the planet. And I think it's because of a certainly quality he shares with Hanks that I am not exactly sure I can explain. The best way I can put might be this: he's inclusive.

When you watch Segel in movies or on "How I Met Your Mother," you always feel like you're in on the joke. It's the same quality that Hanks had in "Big" and "Bachelor Party," and it makes them both feel very accessible. Hanks has lost a bit of this over the years as he has become a mega-star, but this was a huge part of his appeal in the 1980s. Part of my problem with a lot of the Judd Apatow mafia (Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, Bill Hader) is that I've started to get the sense that they think they are a little too cool for school. With Segel, however, that's not the case. He's just an unpretentious goofball who is extremely likeable in pretty much everything he does. And like Hanks, he's good looking, but not too good looking, and I think this works to his benefit. It makes him more accessible, in fact. And though Segel hasn't done much comedy in his career, I'm convinced he has the gravitas to pull off drama. We actually know he does because he did it on "Freaks And Geeks."

I mean, can't you just envision Segel's career arc from here? He's going to keep doing "How I Met Your Mother" for a couple of years, and he is set to co-write the next Muppet movie. That is obviously going to be a huge hit. I mean, after seeing bits of the Dracula musical in "Forgetting Sarah Marshall," how can it not be great? He'll probably get some supporting roles in Apatow-type films here and there, and then there will be the inevitable story in "Entertainment Weekly" in which Segel says, "you know, I'm thinking I might like to take on some more dramatic roles." Then he'll end up starring with Kate Winslet in some Charlie Kaufman flick about a couple who decides to roller skate across Canada. Segel will get nominated for an Oscar, and even though he won't win, it will be the first step towards his dramatic film career. And then 10 years after that we will all laugh ironically when "Knocked Up" is on cable and think, "remember when Jason Segel used to do comedy? Man, that was a long time ago!"

The problem with my Segel=Hanks theory is that it leaves me conflicted. On the one hand, I like being right, and it would give me great pleasure to still be e-mailing people this link in 10 years when Jason Segel is all the rage with the subject line "see, I told you so." On the other hand, I think there is a dearth of quality comedy (say that 10 times fast), and it would be sad if one of the finest comedic actors around stopped doing comedy. I still lament the fact that Hanks stopped doing comedy because he is so good at it. In case you've forgotten, watch any number of SNL's he's hosted to see what I'm talking about. So even if I win, we all lose. It's quite a conundrum.